The UEFA Champions League knockout stage is here, and Sporting Lisbon is set to face Borussia Dortmund at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in the first leg of their playoff. This clash is eagerly anticipated as both teams are in a period of transition, following managerial changes that have left them struggling to find consistency. In this blog post, we’ll break down the key factors that could determine the outcome, as well as offer our prediction for this intriguing encounter.
Sporting Lisbon’s Struggles After Amorim’s Departure
Since the departure of Ruben Amorim, Sporting Lisbon has struggled to replicate the impressive form that saw them top their Champions League group in the previous season. After starting their group stage campaign with a strong 10 points from the first four games, Sporting failed to win any of their final four matches. This winless run included losses to Arsenal, Club Brugge, and RB Leipzig. However, a crucial 1-1 draw with Bologna on matchday eight helped them secure a spot in the playoffs on goal difference.
Despite these struggles, Sporting’s new manager Rui Borges has steadied the ship, with the team remaining unbeaten in their last seven matches at home across all competitions. Still, a dramatic 2-2 draw with Porto in the Primeira Liga, in which they finished with nine men, left them feeling deflated as they prepare for their big European night against Dortmund.
Borussia Dortmund's Leaky Defense and Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund enters this tie with their own set of problems. They were part of an intensely competitive group stage, finishing in a respectable position but struggling with consistency. Dortmund, however, managed to find the back of the net frequently, scoring 22 goals in the league phase—the second-best attacking record behind Barcelona. Still, they have struggled defensively, with no clean sheets in 13 matches across all competitions. This defensive fragility was evident in their 2-1 loss to Stuttgart on Saturday, further emphasizing the need for improvement at the back.
Despite their defensive woes, Dortmund boasts a potent attack, with Serhou Guirassy leading the charge. The striker’s impressive tally of nine goals in the group stage puts him on par with Robert Lewandowski for the tournament’s top scorers. Dortmund will need Guirassy to continue his form if they are to take control of this tie, especially as they aim to avenge their 3-1 loss to Sporting Lisbon in their last meeting in 2021.
Team News: Injuries and Suspensions
Sporting Lisbon will be without key players, including Morten Hjulmand, who is suspended after picking up his third yellow card of the tournament. Other absentees include Pedro Goncalves (muscle), Joao Simoes (unspecified injury), and Nuno Santos (ACL injury). However, despite recent red cards for Matheus Reis and Ousmane Diomande, both players are eligible to feature.
Dortmund, meanwhile, will be missing Felix Nmecha (knee) for the foreseeable future and Carney Chukwuemeka (knee) remains a doubt. Despite these concerns, they will field a strong lineup featuring the likes of Emre Can and Julian Brandt, and the in-form Guirassy.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Borussia Dortmund: Predicted Lineups
Sporting Lisbon:
- Israel
- Fresneda, Diomande, Inacio, Araujo
- Braganca, Debast, Morita
- Trincao, Gyokeres, Quenda
Borussia Dortmund:
- Kobel
- Ryerson, Can, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini
- Sabitzer, Gross
- Adeyemi, Brandt, Gittens
- Guirassy
Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Given both teams' inconsistency and the defensive frailties that have plagued Dortmund this season, we expect a hard-fought but evenly matched contest. Sporting Lisbon’s recent form at home and their ability to grind out results could see them secure a valuable draw in this first leg. Meanwhile, Dortmund’s attacking firepower, spearheaded by Guirassy, will ensure they pose a significant threat.
Ultimately, we foresee a 1-1 draw, leaving everything to play for in the second leg.
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